Noisy Politics

As elections approach in Germany, the number of surveys on voting intentions increases. Every week you can read some wild speculations on why party X lost one point, while another gained one. If you are tired of journalists who interpret nothing but noise in the data, you might want to have a look at the diagrams below. They show you the long term trend in voting intentions for each major party as a moving average of individual survey results (including surveys from all major research agencies). Confidence intervals for every survey estimate are also shown. The data is up to date - last included survey was published on June 18.